Reality check: The THC market is walking into the same death spiral that destroyed CBD price.
We’ve seen this movie before. In 2017, CBD prices were untouchable.
Wholesale prices reached €3.50 per gram. But in just 7 years the prices have crashed by 90% to under €0,50.
I’ve been digging into the numbers.
I spoke with international brokers selling THC flowers into Germany. I spoke with German distributors on the ground.
The feedback is concerning.
⚠️ GACP Flower: Can be found under €1.00/g (€1,000/kg).
⚠️ EU-GMP Flower: Trading under €2.00/g (€2,000/kg).
The parallels with the CBD crash are impossible to ignore.
As more producers enter the THC space, the same forces will trigger a massive devaluation: oversupply, increased cultivation efficiency, market saturation…
Cannabis is moving from boutique products to bulk agricultural crops.
Investors and entrepreneurs, be careful with your break-even calculations.
In a flooded market, the middle ground disappears.
Only one thing will prevail: Q-U-A-L-I-T-Y.
As prices drop, the market becomes ruthless.
Generic, low-terpene flowers will be sold for pennies or turned into oil.
Only those who can produce exceptional quality at an industrial scale will maintain a seat at the table.
Are you prepared for the €1.00/gram reality?
This is Duartte’s original post and responses to his Linked-In piece here.
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