This outlook for 2026 was first published by Stratcann.
Growth has been largely driven by the German market, with a 400% year-over-year increase in imports in the first half of 2025. While this demand has fueled a frenzy of exports from countries like Canada, it has also led to price compression and an increasingly competitive market that has benefited well-capitalized companies
Additionally, new measures such as limiting telemedicine in several countries, as well as ongoing regulatory changes like updating GACP standards, and redefining how lab testing and EU-GMP compliance work across jurisdictions, can pose significant challenges for international processors and intermediaries.
The Fall 2025 Global Cannabis Report from the Global Cannabis Exchange (GCX) highlights the need for coordinated oversight and disciplined production planning to ensure long-term stability in the global market. GCX is an international cannabis exchange developed to facilitate industry transactions, providing a bird’s eye view of international cannabis logistics and pricing.
One example of these challenges facing processors and intermediaries, as highlighted by the report, is recent delays in the Portugal supply chain. Portugal had emerged as a central hub for both the import and processing of EU-GMP cannabis for re-export into European markets at a time when many cannabis companies in Canada lacked EU-GMP certification. However, raids on multiple licensed facilities in May 2025 caused more than 25 tonnes of cannabis to sit in limbo in Portugal.
This has given a further advantage to cannabis companies in Canada and other countries with EU-GMP upgrading ability, who have been able to bypass Portugal and ship directly into countries like Germany and the UK.
This backlog, once released, is anticipated to flood the German and UK markets, potentially triggering a rapid wave of price compression across Europe, similar to Canada’s early legalization years when larger distributors were often able to squeeze out smaller operators, argues the GCX report.
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