Reliable figures are not available for South African consumer cannabis spend, because it’s all pretty much illegal.
But for the estimated 3,5 million cannabis consumers in the country, the law is there as a technicality to be circumscribed and absolutely no barrier to getting what they want.
And what they want, it would appear, is more than just access to good flower.
Euromonitor estimates the value of the South African cannabis market to be around R43 billion, of which medical cannabis – the only legal mechanism to buy cannabis, is valued at about R470 million.
As the market matures, the trends are that Millennials and Gen Z’s are driving sales, and they want convenience and choice. Although local evidence is at best anecdotal, it appears to reflect what’s happening in the United States and Canada which both have established cannabis retail markets.
Cannabiz Africa looks at the observations of three leading figures in the US cannabis industry on what they expect in 2026. Local Grey Zone operators take note!
These excerpts are taken from Cannabis Industry Outlook: Lessons From 2025 and What Lies Ahead in 2026
George Archos, CEO of Verano:
“I think the formats that grew stronger in 2025 will continue to strengthen. While flower is still very popular, more people turned to pre-rolls, vapes and beverages than ever before. What used to be small categories are now no longer so small.
I think there’s always room for craft cannabis producers, similar to what we see in the beer industry. There are craft growers amongst all these big conglomerates because if someone’s producing a product that’s local they tend to be successful. When you start to expand your wings obviously the business becomes more difficult. And that can hurt.”
Megan McCrae, Organigram Global
“We expect undifferentiated flower to remain the most challenged area, particularly for brands without a clear value proposition or consistent quality. We also expect growing momentum in ready-to-consume formats and products that [offer] convenience for consumers including pre-roll, edible and vape innovations that reduce consumer pain points and offer more choice in terms of consumption methods.”
LeVar Thomas, co-CEO and co-founder of Silly Nice:
We think brands that focus on quality, trust, and real customer relationships will grow while those built only on hype or scale will continue to struggle. Hype doesn’t last. … When the product doesn’t live up to the messaging, customers move on quickly.”
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