After a broadly optimistic and reform-driven 2024, this year saw momentum begining to shift once again for the global cannabis industry.
2024 marked the biggest year for democratic elections in human history, seeing a wave of anti-incumbent sentiment sweep the globe, resulting in a far more complex dynamic for cannabis policy.
In many markets, like the Czech Republic or the US, promising legislative reforms have been stalled, while other markets like Germany and Australia are under threat of inching backwards.
If reform unlocked the door, telemedicine prescribing and a seemingly endless supply of cheap Canadian cannabis kicked it wide open, enabling a level of growth not even seasoned insiders predicted.”
As we rapidly approach 2026, the flood of cannabis washing into these markets is now at odds with the looming threat of fresh restrictions, setting the stage for chronic oversupply, further price compression, and a tough period for those whose business models were built for the snap rush.
Canada has cemented itself as a pivotal player in the global supply chain, proving throughout the year that it can provide whatever the rest of the world is willing to take, with annual shipments reaching approximately 240 tonnes in 2025, more than double the 107 tonnes exported in 2024.
These shifting dynamics and more will be explored in detail in Prohibition Partners’ upcoming Global Medical Cannabis Market Review 2026, due to be published in early 2026.
Below, is a sample of what you can expect from the report, alongside insights from the team at Prohibition Partners into 2025, and how they think this will shape the global medical cannabis industry over the coming year.
Telemedicine: The engine of growth and scrutiny
Telemedicine has become the main channel for patient access in the world’s largest medical cannabis markets. Its use has become a significant driver of growth in markets including Australia, Germany and the UK as it connects patients with doctors comfortable prescribing medical cannabis, which remains few and far between globally. Additionally, a prescription can be obtained from the comfort of their own home.
The ease of access to cannabis, combined with questionable marketing practices by some platforms and a lack of oversight, has become a contentious issue in Australia and Germany. Politicians and health officials in both countries are raising concerns that these platforms are being used by recreational users to access cannabis. As a result, there are plans to restrict telemedicine in Germany, and discussions are ongoing in Australia.
Prohibition Partners’ Senior Analyst Alex Khourdaji predicts that ‘telemedicine restrictions are bound to occur in Germany and could be seen in Australia in 2026’.
Veteran market analyst Alfredo Pascual added: “Germany enters 2026 with a clear risk of regulatory tightening in medical cannabis, even if the exact timing and final shape of the rules remain uncertain.
“The draft legislation on the table as of late 2025 is quite drastic on paper, particularly in its attempt to curb high-volume telemedicine models and pharmacy delivery to patients. At the same time, the legislative process has already revealed material enforcement gaps. The Cabinet rejected the Bundesrat’s push to shut down cross-border EU prescriptions, effectively preserving a key access channel for now, while the proposed delivery restrictions still lack clear, practical penalty mechanisms”.
Depending on the severity of these restrictions, they could disrupt international supply chains within the industry, as both Germany and Australia are among the largest importers and medical cannabis markets outside of North America.
Pascual continued: “Demand does not disappear by decree. Short-term disruption is likely, but the experience in markets like Poland shows that volumes can recover even under heavy restrictions. The German industry will adapt faster than regulation can fully close these structural gaps.”
Khourdaji believes that, regardless of the end result, these restrictions should serve as a warning for other markets.
“Depending on the level of regulation, we can expect a significant short-term drop in global demand, as these are the two largest medical markets outside North America. These restrictions will not only have a severe impact on the commercial size of the market but will be detrimental for patients, especially those who live in rural areas and have debilitating conditions.
“These restrictions should serve as a warning to other markets to self-regulate teleclinics.”
As overregulation tends to occur when public and youth safety are at stake, we can expect global sales in these markets to decline. Recovery will depend on how prescribers adapt to the new regulations.
The oversupply equation
With Canadian operators holding vast stocks and having scaled up production capacity over the past year due to improved domestic prices and increased export demand, the combination of expanded production and potential demand contraction has raised concerns about global oversupply.
“As global producers continue to scale up while major import markets face potential near-term constraints on growth, oversupply is likely to become a common theme in the coming year,” said Lawrence Purkiss, Senior Analyst at Prohibition Partners.
Khourdaji identified Thailand as a new force entering the international medical cannabis supply chain in 2026.
“The country benefits from abundant resources, an ideal climate for cultivation, and low operating costs,” he said. “The market is also witnessing a number of cultivators producing for medical exports. Together, these factors position Thailand as a potential major player in the global cannabis market.”
The future of flower
Ben Stevens, Editor of Business of Cannabis, notes that while raw flower remains king, 2026 could see its dominance begin to wane.
“As we continue to see a tightening of restrictions on medical cannabis frameworks throughout Europe, a lot of the negative attention is now being placed on flower as a category,” he said.
“In the UK, products transplanted directly from the North American adult-use markets into the private medical market are already drawing concern from regulators over their names and branding. Similarly, in Germany, Drug Commissioner Hendrik Streek recently suggested that banning flowers could be a route the government considered in its medical cannabis pushback. Meanwhile, emerging markets like France and Spain are launching without flower offered at all.”
Stevens suggests these dynamics will drive greater interest in alternative product formats. Purkiss delves further, suggesting France’s non-flower, pharmaceutically-focused plans could act as a new template for future reform.
“The launch of France’s new medical cannabis production and treatment structure has the potential to provide an alternative template for countries looking to establish medical cannabis frameworks within their healthcare systems,” he said.
“The French model is more integrated into the existing pharmaceutical production and clinical treatment landscape in the country than is the case in other large patient markets. It remains to be seen how quickly domestic production partnerships can create products which are acceptable for patients, doctors and regulators.”
Intoxicating hemp’s uncertain future
In the US, the intoxicating hemp market dominated the headlines in 2025, and presented a major threat to established medical and recreational businesses, concerned that these cheap and largely unregulated products would cannibalise their market dominance.
With a new federal ban passed at the end of the year, Stevens believes intoxicating hemp will continue to be a key policy topic in the coming months.
“While it’s impossible to predict what will happen in the sector, an area I am sure will continue to drive headlines is intoxicating hemp,” he said.
“The US ban, not set to come into force until late 2026, could yet be amended. In theory, this $30bn grey market would simply disappear overnight. In reality, thousands of manufacturers, importers, investors and consumers will now be looking for a new home.”
“Given the relative ease with which these semi-synthetic cannabinoids can be created, the growing number of Delta-9 THC alternatives, and the slow pace of effective regulations, I believe the genie is out of the bottle.”
UK: Steady growth, persistent gaps
Sarah Sinclair, Editor of Cannabis Health, expects continued but measured expansion in the UK market.
“Patient numbers will continue to grow steadily in the UK, and we’ll see more clinicians expressing interest in medical cannabis, but prescriber numbers will remain low compared to demand,” Sinclair said.
As with Germany and Australia, she expects some incoming regulatory pushback, though just like the UK’s comparative growth, more muted.
“While we await the findings of the ACMD review, I think we’ll see increased engagement from UK regulators such as the CQC and the General Pharmaceutical Council with the sector, as it faces greater scrutiny in line with growing patient numbers.”
Sinclair also highlighted emerging legal challenges around patient access. “As access expands, legal cases related to drug-driving offences and employment tribunals will also become more prevalent, and it will become harder for policymakers to ignore major gaps related to CBPMs, particularly in relation to driving and workplace drug-testing. How employers should manage this, and how to accurately measure impairment, will become an increasingly important part of the conversation, with some professional bodies in the occupational health space, for example, currently reported to be reviewing their guidelines.”
On product development, Sinclair added: “I hope to see more R&D focused on women and women’s health-related conditions, with more delivery formats developed that meet their needs and preferences. However, I don’t see anything major changing in terms of the growing demand for high-potency flower until more product formats become widely available.”
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