This report from MJBiz Daily , published on 14 February 2025.

Germany will hold federal elections on 23 February 2025 that will decide whether the left-leaning Social Democratic Party (SDU) will continue to lead the nation or if they will relinquish power to the right-leaning Christian Democratic Union (CDU).

Among the constituencies paying close attention is the country’s young cannabis industry, which saw marijuana reform make substantial advances under the SDU and its coalition partners.

The changes included a dramatic liberalization of Germany’s medical cannabis law that resulted in a surge of MMJ patients as well as a new recreational law that, while very modest, opened the door for a possible commercial marijuana market.

These changes have caught the attention of foreign cannabis companies as well, including many from the United States and Canada that are already putting down roots in Germany in anticipation of continued reform and a booming marijuana market.

But if voters break for the CDU, which leads in the polls, reforms could slow or even be reversed.

For now, however, the country’s cannabis market is robust and primed for opportunity.

Cannabis prescriptions, prices and production

The price of cannabis in Germany dropped to an all-time low in the fourth quarter of 2024 even as demand for marijuana increased, according to a report by Frankfurt-based Bloomwell GmbH, one of the country’s licensed growers and operators.

In October and November, some medical cannabis strains sold for as low as 3.99 euros ($4.12) per gram.

The average price per gram in November dropped to 8.35 euros, down from 9.27 euros in January 2024, according to Bloomwell’s report “The Cannabis Barometer – 2024 Medical Cannabis Market Trends in Germany.”

Prices dropped even though the number of prescriptions issued were 1,000% higher than in March 2024, indicating a rise in the number of self-paying patients who are responsible for the full cost of their treatment.

Niklas Kouparanis, co-founder and CEO of Frankfurt-based Bloomwell Group, called the results surprising.

“Demand is increasing in Germany, so we thought prices would go up,” Kouparanis said.

“It’s the opposite of what we thought, which means the industry was pretty well prepared.”

Although patient numbers continue to rise, Kouparanis predicts the German market will experience oversupply at some point this year as cultivators add capacity to their operations.

Opportunities for foreign players

Deepak Anand, principal of ASDA Consultancy Services in Surrey, British Columbia, said Germany is expected to surpass an annual supply run rate of 100 tonnes (roughly 110 U.S. tons) and is on track to become one of the world’s largest and most dynamic cannabis medical markets.

As of April 2024, about 300,000 patients in Germany were using medical marijuana, according to Anand.

“The real growth is around imports,” Anand said.

“We’re seeing Canadian companies continue to dominate imports, and we’re seeing additional companies coming.”

New York-based Curaleaf Holdings, which trades as CURA on the Toronto Stock Exchange, is one such company.

In 2022, the multistate operator acquired a 55% stake in Four 20 Pharma, a licensed German producer and distributor of medical cannabis with European Union-Good Manufacturing Practice (EU-GMP) and Good Distribution Practice (GDP) certifications.

The move paved the way for Curaleaf to build a strong foundation in one of the cannabis industry’s critical global markets.

Last April, Curaleaf acquired Northern Green Canada in a move made to “amplify” its strategic advantage in European markets, including Germany.

Juan Martinez, head of Curaleaf International, said Germany is a priority market for the company, and Four 20 Pharma plays a crucial role in strengthening the operator’s leadership in the market.

“Our mission is to expand patient access through cutting-edge research, innovation and evidence-based treatments,” Martinez said.

“It is essential to keep patient care at the center of decision-making and avoid returning to restrictive measures that have proven ineffective in the past.”

Germany’s path to cannabis legalization

Medical cannabis has been permitted in Germany since 2017, albeit under a restrictive model that resulted in a modest number of patients.

But last April 1, a law went into effect in Germany that removed cannabis from its narcotics list, making it much easier for patients to receive a prescription for medical marijuana, which must be sold through licensed pharmacies.

Since then, there has been a surge in the number of medical marijuana patients in Germany.

Under the new medical model, it’s easy for consumers to get prescriptions to purchase cannabis, Anand said.

Consumers can see a physician through a telehealth portal to get a prescription and walk into any pharmacy to have it filled.

“The medical market is the easy way to access cannabis,” Anand said. “The upcoming election is not expected to disrupt the current momentum, and the strong growth trajectory is likely to continue.”

According to Martinez, “these reforms have helped integrate cannabis into mainstream health care, reducing stigma and allowing patients to seek treatment without unnecessary barriers and an easier path toward insurance coverage.

“It is essential to keep patient care at the center of decision-making and avoid returning to restrictive measures that have proven ineffective in the past.”

Benedikt Sons, co-founder and CEO of Mörfelden-Walldorf, Germany-based cannabis distribution company Cansativa Group, said the company is gearing up to manage its supply chain and ensure it has the infrastructure and team members in place to meet demand.

“We see ourselves as a partner and enabler for the entire industry,” Sons said. “It’s less about competition and more about partnership.”

On the recreational side, Germany’s federal government also passed the Cannabis Act, which allows for the creation of marijuana cultivation social clubs, which are not commercial.

Club members can grow cannabis for themselves and other members, but no product is bought or sold at the clubs, which became operational in July.

Each club allows as many as 500 members, who can each obtain up to 50 grams (roughly 1.8 ounces) of cannabis per month but cannot consume it on-site.

The Cannabis Act also decriminalized possession of up to 25 grams of flower in public and 50 grams at home for adults 18 and older. The law also allowed home cultivation of up to three cannabis plants per person.

The future of adult-use cannabis

The next phase of the German cannabis market is implementing an adult-use pilot program after the Feb. 23 election.

The conservative Christian Democratic Union is expected to win the election, but Kouparanis said it will need to partner with one of the other parties – the Social Democrats, Free Democrats or Greens.

Under the new adult-use pilot program scheme, companies and scientific institutions can apply for pilot program licenses, which would allow them to sell adult-use products.

Jamie Pearson, president of Montana-based global cannabis consulting firm New Holland Group, said an adult-use program would eventually lead to more American-style dispensaries that allow anyone to purchase flower, edibles and concentrates.

The German government would benefit from the taxes collected, unlike from the country’s tax-free medical marijuana market.

In any cannabis market, the biggest competitors are illicit businesses that don’t have to comply with testing requirements or pay taxes.

But when adult use is permitted, some of the larger companies, such as Curaleaf and Canada’s Aurora Cannabis and Tilray Brands, will expand their retail operations and start branding their stores, Pearson said.

“The biggest competition is going to be the medical market,” Pearson said.

“We will have more cannabis tourism – the recreational program is going to be really geared toward outsiders because people can get cheaper better cannabis in the pharmacies.”

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